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Feb
26
Written by:
admin
2/26/2010 8:36 PM
NOTE: Cross-posted to Creative Destruction, an economics blog.
Humanity's destiny is to spread out, first building orbital habitats, then colonizing other bodies within our solar system, and finally spreading out to other star systems. This isn't something I believe. It's not a matter of faith. It's a fact.
You know how I know? Because I have studied economics.
"Wait, what does economics have to do with space exploration (other than the fact that exploring space costs an arm and a leg)?" you might be saying. Exploration—of any type—is all about economics.
When European explorers crossed the Atlantic in the 15th and 16th centuries, they weren't coming to the Americas in search of scientific knowledge, or to meet the locals. They were trying to develop more efficient routes to Asia to beat their trade competition. They were looking for gold and other resources to exploit to enrich their own countries back home.
And, in the end, they did. Europe as a whole grew richer because of the exploration of the Americas. And in America, over time, the population grew and became wealthier as well, in some areas even surpassing the wealth of the Europeans.
Economics is not a zero-sum game, especially when you can explore and gain access to new sources of raw materials. What that means is that investments in exploration almost always pay off economically (maybe not always as intended, but they usually do pay off).
Here on Earth, we have a fixed amount of resources (actually, our resources grow infinitesimally larger due to cosmic debris constantly being deposited, but it's such a small amount as to be negligible), but a rapidly growing population. What that means is that when resources start to grow scarce (as may be happening soon with oil, uranium, platinum, seafood, and others) the amount available per person drops. If you consider resources as a form of wealth, then a fixed amount of available resources and a growing population combine to mean that the average wealth level is dropping over time.
If you consider land as one of those resources (as economists generally do), then the amount of available land per person is dwindling even more rapidly, as water levels are rising and erosion is eating away at land area (although, to be fair, there will be a lot more usable land available in Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Greenland, and Antarctica before too much longer). Crowding is becoming a major problem, and finding solutions here on Earth (short of starvation, disease, wars, or genocide) is difficult.
Throughout history, we solved this problem by developing new forms of resources through exploration. We found new lands and new sources of metals, woods, and fossil fuels. We explored the depths of the oceans for food resources and oil. We developed new power sources such as nuclear power through scientific exploration. But we're running out of places on Earth to explore; we're running out of new sources of raw materials to exploit. In our quest to produce more resources and feed more people, we're damaging our environment and driving other species to extinction at an alarming rate.
But all we have to do is look up to the heavens, and our problems will be solved. I'm not talking about religion; I'm talking about the quadrillions of dollars in raw materials that are floating around in our solar system near Earth's orbit. Beyond that, there is literally an infinite amount of raw materials, not to mention room to spread out so that we're not crowding each other so much. All we have to do is make the investment in exploration.
But it's not going to be governments that do it. Spain did not send the Armada out across the Atlantic Ocean looking for more efficient routes to China and India. It contracted out with private explorers and reaped the benefits of their success. Once the private explorers have proved the viability, governments in Europe took advantage and began to spread and reap the economic benefits. But the real economic beneficiaries were the private companies that threw resources into both the Caribbean Sea and the Indian Ocean—such as the Dutch East and West Indies Companies, and the British East and West Indies Companies. There are numerous other examples throughout history of private explorations for economic gain (take Marco Polo's expedition, for example).
For that reason, I don't believe that governments will lead the way in colonizing the Moon or Mars or Venus or other celestial bodies. That's not to say they don't have a role, just the same as Queen Isabela's funding of Christopher Columbus' expeditions paved the way for centuries of European economic development.
We've got a long way to go to Get There From Here, but I know that we'll get there eventually.
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